Chart of the Week: Volatility Index
Time for our chart of the week. And this week we’re gonna be specializing in the Volatility Index, or the VIX. Many individuals name it the concern index. It’s been on the rise, actually for the reason that starting a part of December. However not very many individuals have actually seen it till extra just lately. Let’s chart this up and see what we are able to work out.
What caught my eye right here is that this stretch of upper lows and better highs within the VIX over the previous 4 1/2, nearly 5 months for the reason that starting of December. You’ll be able to see that it’s a bit of little bit of a sloppy channel I put in there. Nevertheless it’s not rising bottoms, and it’s not rising tops. And we did break via that decrease finish of the channel on the finish of March however we bounced proper again above it.
After which we see the transfer that occurred simply these previous few days. Enormous surge within the VIX closing above 17. After which on Monday, April 15 we noticed a giant surge up via 19, and we’re nonetheless above that 19 degree.
As it’s, the VIX is a bit of bit overbought proper now. And you may see that with the RSI ticking above 70%. The final couple of instances it went as much as this space was a little bit of a peak, so we might pull again down.
The Volatility Index is going through an impending crossover
However the one factor I wish to isolate on right here is the upcoming merging of the 20 and 200 day shifting averages. For those who look intently right here – you possibly can see the 20 day shifting common is that this dotted. This darkish line over right here is the 200 day shifting common.
Now, for majority of this final rally, the 20 day shifting common has been beneath the 200 day shifting common. And that signifies a bullish situation for the markets.
And we acquired that crossover right here in direction of the top of November. And we are able to see in sort the VIX saved coming down and it went down all the best way to only below 12% for a short while in December – displaying a variety of complacency available in the market.
However now we’ve got this 20 day shifting common threatening to cross the 200 day shifting common.
The final time we had a crossover, the markets dropped
Now let’s see what occurred final time that occurred. We had been up right here on the center a part of October, and that’s once we set these October lows. Keep in mind that this transfer up into the mid 20s from the excessive 17 space was a fairly vicious drop within the markets from right here to there. It was a couple of 40% improve in volatility, and the markets went down fairly sharply. When volatility is up – spiking like it’s proper now – had been going to see a variety of volatility.
Now what does volatility imply? It merely signifies that ranges are increasing. As an alternative of seeing the markets go like this, it’s going like this – up and down massive time.
That makes folks a bit of bit uneasy about being invested within the markets. We all know that lots of people are pulling cash out of the market proper now, as a result of rates of interest are elevated, and so they appear to be climbing each single day. The ten-year yield is above 4.6%. So we see folks reaching for some safety right here, and you may see it evident within the rise within the Volatility Index.
The place it’s going subsequent
Keep watch over the VIX over right here. In some unspecified time in the future in time, it’s gonna spike up and are available proper again down very similar to it did in the course of February. The VIX had a spike proper right here and got here again down. I feel lots of people had been anticipating that after Thursday. It spiked up and got here again down, but it surely got here proper again up once more on Friday with information of the assault within the Center East.
And yesterday after all we tried to return again, however we couldn’t even get via this channel over right here. And we closed close to the highs of the session on the day. So keep watch over the VIX. It’s an vital indicator for us to concentrate to what the market is considering at any second in time.
In order that’s the Volatility Index.
Don’t miss a single one among Bob’s charts! Get the Chart of the Week in your inbox each week!
