2024 Housing Market Replace and Why Costs Are Nonetheless Rising

Dave:
This yr has been a little bit of a rollercoaster for the housing market. We’ve seen a whole lot of conflicting market knowledge and knowledge. There’s been a whole lot of surprises and I discover it personally complicated. I’m positive lots of you do as nicely. And that may make it troublesome to make choices about what to do subsequent. However don’t fear, I acquired you guys. Market knowledge is my factor and I’m gonna break all of it down for you right this moment in a straightforward actionable manner so you can also make knowledgeable choices about what offers to do subsequent and methods to handle your present portfolio.
Hey everybody, that is Dave Meyer right here for one more episode of Larger Information. That is our weekly section the place we cowl present occasions impacting traders. And right this moment I’m going to supply an summary of the 2024 market. To date within the a number of the subsequent couple of episodes we’ve got arising, we’re gonna get away our crystal balls that make predictions in regards to the second half of the yr. However since there’s so much to cowl right this moment, I’m simply gonna deal with what we truly know. We’ll discuss what’s occurred this yr, why sure developments are occurring, and a pair surprises you might not have heard about. So I’ll begin with an summary of the market on a nationwide degree, however clearly regional variations are fairly large as of late and fairly necessary. So I’ll share some observations there. After which lastly, I’ll go into just a few private observations. This won’t essentially be knowledge, it’s simply issues that I’ve seen myself and my very own offers and my very own portfolio.
And from speaking to a whole lot of traders on a regular basis, and I’ll offer you guys a little bit little bit of a preview proper now, there’s some excellent news in right here. There’s additionally some sobering information and there’s nonetheless a whole lot of uncertainty. And my objective right here, when you hear one thing that doesn’t sound nice, isn’t to scare anybody away. I’ve been investing pretty actively this yr and there are offers to do, however I wanna assist everybody perceive what kind of choices and what kinds of underwriting make sense in our present financial and housing market circumstances. Earlier than we leap in, our greater information episode right this moment is dropped at you by Hire app. It’s the free and simple approach to acquire lease. And when you wanna be taught extra, you are able to do that at lease Do app slash Landlord, let’s do that factor. First up is our nationwide knowledge. And like I mentioned, I’m gonna hit you with a bunch of knowledge and I’ll share some statistics, however don’t get overwhelmed.
Right here’s the story in a nutshell, affordability and stock, these are two key metrics within the housing market. They’re driving a lot of the conduct in what you want to know in regards to the market proper now. If you happen to’re not conversant in these phrases, I’ll simply go over them rapidly. So affordability is principally how simply the common American can afford the common value. House and affordability is principally made up of three issues. It’s housing costs, it’s wages, principally how a lot cash individuals have to purchase a home and mortgage charges. And whenever you take a look at the type of like this Venn diagram of these three issues and the way they’re interacting with each other, affordability proper is the bottom it has been because the Eighties. And also you most likely see this within the information on a regular basis, nevertheless it’s actually troublesome for individuals to afford properties. There was hope that this may get higher this yr in 2024, at the start of the yr, a whole lot of economists, a whole lot of forecasters had been saying that mortgage charges had been going to fall and that was going to enhance affordability.
However sadly that hasn’t occurred proper now. Mortgage charges are sitting at round 7%, which is healthier than it was simply a few weeks in the past the place they shot as much as seven level half %, however we’re nearly even nearly precisely even from the place we’re a yr in the past. And so affordability’s truly gotten worse, proper? As a result of wages have gone up a little bit bit and mortgage charges are the identical, however housing costs are literally up. So affordability has solely gotten worse this yr. And when you’re confused about why that occurred with mortgage charges, I simply will share with you rapidly why I feel what’s occurring. And actually, I didn’t assume charges had been gonna come down as a lot as lots of people had been saying at the start yr. And don’t get me unsuitable, I’m unsuitable on a regular basis, however that is one thing I’ve truly been proper about up to now this yr.
Mainly individuals I feel had been a little bit overly optimistic about what was occurring within the labor market and with inflation knowledge and the fed, though they mentioned final fall that they had been gonna reduce charges, they’re very knowledge pushed, they don’t make these choices after which simply persist with them. What they do is take a look at knowledge each single month. And when you regarded on the inflation knowledge and the labor market knowledge again after they made that announcement, it wasn’t tremendous clear. So it did, a minimum of to me, seem to be there was probability they had been gonna backtrack on that. And that’s precisely what has occurred. And so whereas I do assume, I suppose I’ll offer you a little bit preview of the crystal ball, I do assume mortgage charges will come down a little bit bit over the second half of the yr. To date in 2024 that hasn’t occurred.
In order that implies that this era of low affordability the place we’ve got excessive costs and excessive charges is impacting the market by pulling out patrons. This reduces demand available in the market as a result of despite the fact that individuals do wish to purchase properties, they simply can’t afford it. And in order that lowers demand. And within the housing market, we are able to measure dwelling purchaser demand in a few other ways. However my private favourite approach to do it’s there’s one thing referred to as the MBA index and the MBA stands for the Mortgage Bankers Affiliation. And principally they simply observe how many individuals are making use of for mortgages each single week. And what you see is that over the course of 2024, we’ve been persistently underneath the final two years, it’s not that far underneath. However on condition that affordability has continued to say no, it’s not stunning to see that much less individuals wanna purchase a house at this level in 2024 than they did within the earlier yr and even again in 2022.
And usually whenever you see demand depart any type of market, housing market, no matter you’re making an attempt to purchase, that may imply falling costs or it usually results in falling costs, proper? As a result of when much less individuals wanna purchase one thing, normally sellers must compensate purchase reducing costs. However that is the place that second piece of the puzzle that I talked about at the start is available in. Bear in mind I mentioned affordability and stock had been the principle tales within the housing market in 2024. So now we’ve got to shift and discuss stock as a result of stock is principally how we measure provide within the housing market. So despite the fact that that patrons are leaving the market due to the low affordability, sellers are literally even much less desirous to be on this market proper now and that has lowered stock. So principally we’re on this atmosphere the place each demand has lowered, however provide has truly fallen even additional.
And simply briefly why that is taking place is, you’ve most likely heard this time period, nevertheless it’s principally due to one thing referred to as the lock in impact. And that is due to one of many distinctive attributes of the housing market. In contrast to a whole lot of different financial markets within the housing market, sellers usually go on to be patrons, proper? You promote a home and also you go purchase one other one. That occurs about 70% of sellers. And so whenever you’re in a interval of low affordability like we’re proper now, most of the individuals who would usually wish to promote are saying, you recognize what? It’s gonna be too costly so I’m simply not going to promote. And that’s what’s led to this extended interval of low stock that we’re in proper now. Now there are some encouraging indicators right here. Stock is definitely up only a bit this yr. It’s up 2% yr over yr, nevertheless it’s truly been backtracking a little bit bit.
’trigger in February it was up 4%. So we’re not precisely shifting in the best route. There’s another constructive indicators although. There’s one other metric I actually like to have a look at, which known as new listings. That is principally simply how many individuals determine to promote their dwelling in a given interval. And that’s truly up 11% yr over yr. And in order that I discover personally actually encouraging. And after I say encouraging, I, that is simply private bias, however I’m of the assumption that we’d like extra stock and we’d like extra demand. And if each of these can rise, that may result in a more healthy housing market. And I do know which may imply that there’s much less fast appreciation within the housing market. I’m personally okay with that. I’d fairly see dwelling quantity enhance and simply sluggish, regular, boring appreciation like is typical within the housing market.
That’s personally what I want to see. Alright, now that we’ve got a baseline on what’s occurring with affordability and stock, what are we seeing by way of dwelling gross sales and lease costs? Persist with us. We’ve acquired insights on all that proper after the break. Hey everybody, welcome again to larger information. Let’s get again into our knowledge. So simply to summarize every part I simply mentioned, principally once more, we’re in a housing market in what economists would name low demand. Low provide. And that additionally usually implies that we’re having low dwelling gross sales. So the entire quantity properties are promoting is beneath the place it usually is. House gross sales are literally up a bit yr over yr. However it’s a must to keep in mind that final yr was actually dangerous. So saying we’re up 7% from final yr doesn’t actually imply that a lot. The truth is, the annualized fee, which principally means the A, we’re on tempo to promote 4.2 million properties in the US this yr.
Evaluate that to the common for a lot of the 2010s. Like principally the interval between the good monetary disaster and the pandemic, it was averaging someplace between 5.2 and 5.5 million. So it’s down about 20% from there. In fact when you evaluate it to the pandemic, that’s a good additional drop. It’s down like 50%, however the pandemic was unusually excessive. We don’t normally see dwelling gross sales above six, six and a half million. And we noticed that for a little bit bit. In order traders, I do know that we don’t all the time take into consideration dwelling gross sales quantity, nevertheless it truly tells us so much in regards to the market. First, it tells us that offer and demand are each low and that there’s simply not a whole lot of transaction quantity that impacts comps, proper? It’s more durable to get sense of what a property’s value when much less properties are promoting. It’s additionally simply dangerous for the business on the whole.
It’s dangerous for brokers, lenders, transaction coordinators, the individuals who depend on transactions for his or her revenue, this clearly negatively impacts them as nicely. And in order that’s why I used to be saying earlier that I’d fairly see a more healthy market the place we’ve got extra dwelling gross sales transaction. I also needs to point out that dwelling gross sales and housing on the whole account for about 16% of the US GDP. So the entire financial output of the US is basically reliant on housing. And so when this a part of the financial system is sluggish like it’s proper now, it drags on every part else. So a little bit little bit of a a facet notice there, however again to our low demand and low provide abstract right here. And this will shock some individuals, however even in this sort of atmosphere, costs can rise. The entire key right here is which is larger, proper? Even when they’re each comparatively low, if provide remains to be lower than demand, costs are gonna develop.
Simply give it some thought this fashion, like what if 10 individuals wished eight homes, there are eight homes on the market, 10 individuals need them, what occurs? Effectively individuals who have the cash to bid up the worth are gonna try this to allow them to be one of many eight individuals who get a home. And that’s basically what’s taking place on this big scale throughout the whole nation. And proper now due to that dynamic dwelling costs are at a whopping median of $434,000 in the US, which is up 6.2% yr over yr, we’ve got seen now 10 straight months of constructive yr over yr appreciation in the US. And when you’ve gotten into investing over the past couple of years, 6.2% won’t sound like a whole lot of appreciation, however it’s in regular years, housing costs go up about 3.5%. So six level a half is nearly double our regular fee.
And that’s even with low demand, even with nearly report low affordability, it truly is fairly wild what’s going on proper now. In order that’s what’s taking place with costs. Earlier than we transfer on to regional variations that are tremendous necessary, I simply wished to rapidly point out what’s occurring with lease. Hire costs throughout the US have principally been flat. We even have been down so much for the final couple of months, however principally flat. Like I say, it’s up 1%, it’s down 1% in most locations. So it’s principally flat for the final yr or so. However it has began to tick up a little bit bit. Um, lately it’s now up a little bit bit over 1% yr over yr. So that’s encouraging. However 1% lease development is definitely nonetheless nicely beneath the common. Normally lease goes up someplace between three or 5% in a yr. Um, and naturally lease remains to be up far more than it was at the start of the pandemic, however the development fee is a little bit bit subdued.
And this is because of a whole lot of issues. However my private perception is the principle cause this is happening is as a result of there’s been a whole lot of multi-family oversupply and over constructing. And I do know it simply mentioned that there’s an absence of provide within the housing market and that’s true within the residential area for single household properties, two to 4 unit properties. However multi-family is a complete completely different animal. And I most likely shouldn’t talked about this at prime, however all the information I’ve given you up to now is only for residential properties. However there are areas of the housing market the place issues overlap, the place multifamily and residential properties collide. And rents is a kind of issues as a result of when you’re a tenant, proper, most individuals are simply searching for the absolute best dwelling state of affairs and so they don’t actually care if it’s a 4 unit or a 30 unit.
They’re gonna take the most effective worth that they’ll get for them and their households. And what’s been taking place within the multifamily area for the previous few years is that throughout the pandemic builders went loopy. They simply began constructing like we’ve actually by no means seen there’ve been report excessive variety of development of multifamily models, nevertheless it takes years to construct multifamily properties. So even properties that began, you recognize, acquired underneath development again in 20 22, 20 23, they’re solely beginning to hit the market now. And despite the fact that issues began slowing down and they may not wanna be ending these tasks proper now, you recognize the prepare has left the station and so all these models are coming on-line. We’re seeing report numbers of multifamily models in a whole lot of main metros and that principally simply floods the market with models. And so we see that multifamily operators and simply traders on the whole must compete for tenants proper now.
And I personally assume that is type of this non permanent glut of provide and issues will get again to regular comparatively quickly within the subsequent yr or so. However whereas that is taking place and all of this multifamily provide is coming on-line, lease development goes to be subdued and we’re principally seeing that mirrored within the knowledge. Okay? In order that’s what’s occurring with lease costs and the general nationwide knowledge. However what does this imply for various areas? What areas nonetheless supply alternative? What’s the cope with Florida? And what must you as an investor do with this data? We’ll get into all that proper after the break.
Welcome again traders. Let’s leap again into our housing market replace. All proper, in order that’s what we had for our nationwide abstract. Hopefully you’re all following me proper now. And now we’re gonna go into some regional variations as a result of I’m positive you guys care a little bit bit about what’s occurring within the broad financial macro degree, however you most likely wish to know what’s occurring in your particular area of the nation. So let’s dive into that. Most areas within the nation are gonna comparatively equally mirror what you see within the nationwide common. That’s form of how averages work. However we’re seeing some notable variations in deviations that I feel are necessary to see. So as a result of costs are up throughout the nation, 6.2%, you may assume that the majority locations within the nation are seeing constructive value appreciation. However there are some notable areas the place we’re seeing value corrections.
And proper now by way of yr over yr corrections, probably the most pronounced ones are in Texas and Louisiana. A lot of Texas truly has adverse value development at this level. Louisiana, Mississippi. There are additionally some components in Northern California, north and South Dakota, however Texas is the massive notable one. Probably the most excessive density, largest inhabitants heart that you just’ll see. And the locations I simply talked about are actually simply over the past yr. If you happen to wanna know what locations have had a correction on the whole since peak costs in 2022, you truly can simply form of draw a line nearly down the center of the nation and know left, proper east west, on the west, most locations have seen costs come down a bit off of their pandemic highs. There’s no market that I do know of that’s actually near pre pandemic costs, however you recognize, every part shut up and a whole lot of the west coast has come again down a little bit bit.
That is on the west coast, like you recognize, California, Washington, Oregon, a whole lot of the mountain west and Utah, Colorado, Montana, all these locations. And far of the Sunbelt like New Mexico, Arizona, Texas, and the locations I simply talked about. However when you truly take a look at the Northeast, which is a spot actual property traders usually ignore, that hasn’t come down in any respect off of their peaks. And a whole lot of the Midwest hasn’t come down in any respect as a result of there isn’t any stock. And so what I mentioned at the start of the present that this housing market is basically all about stock holds true each on a nationwide degree and on a regional degree as a result of as we all know there’s a whole lot of sunbelt demand, proper? Persons are shifting to the southeast and shifting to the Sunbelt. However this is likely one of the locations the place there simply is extra stock due to all that demand.
That is the place a whole lot of constructing has occurred, which is the place a whole lot of provide is coming on-line. And so it’s overshadowing the elevated demand in these areas. I feel an amazing instance is taking a look at Austin, Texas. , this can be a market that has actually robust fundamentals, this big inhabitants development, however in simply the final two years stock, the quantity of properties on the market at any given level has gone up 324%. Now that’s big, however a whole lot of markets have seen stock go up over, you recognize, the pandemic lows. However in Austin specifically, stock is definitely up over pre pandemic ranges 26%. So you may see what’s occurring right here is that there’s simply so many properties available on the market in stock that sellers now must compete for patrons and so they compete for patrons by reducing costs. And that is taking place elsewhere like San Antonio and Memphis and New Orleans, some greater than others.
Like I feel Austin’s form of the poster youngster for the correction that’s occurring proper now. A few of these different markets which might be seeing corrections are fairly small, one or 2% and once more, nonetheless nicely above pre pandemic ranges. However these are type of the markets a minimum of lots of people I speak to consider as type of the horny markets, those which might be rising the quickest. However truly when you take a look at a number of the much less horny markets like Windfall, Rhode Island or Hartford, Connecticut, whenever you take a look at their stock, they haven’t gone up off pre pandemic ranges. They’re down 70% or extra on pre pandemic ranges. So there may be completely nothing to purchase in these markets. And principally patrons are competing for the few properties which might be available on the market and that bids up costs. In order that’s principally what we’re seeing in a number of the regional variations right here.
However I additionally simply wished to rapidly discuss Florida ’trigger individuals appear to all the time wanna speak to me about Florida and what’s occurring available in the market there. So I wished to present a fast replace. Numerous areas are nonetheless up, some are experiencing gentle corrections proper now, however we’re seeing Florida weakening considerably greater than different markets proper now. And this can be stunning as a result of it’s simply been so sizzling over the previous few years. However these kind of cycles are pure, proper? Like those that develop the quickest for some time usually then expertise a little bit of a correction, a little bit of a reversion. And I do assume we’re beginning to see that in Florida in actually a modest manner. And so after I say that it’s one of many weaker markets within the within the US proper now, it’s not essentially that each one of them are adverse, it’s that we’re seeing outsized depreciation and development in so many areas that Florida simply rising modestly or being comparatively flat does stand out as a as a distinction from a few of these issues.
And once more, I simply wanna reiterate, I do know I’m a damaged report right here, however the cause that is taking place is due to stock. You take a look at a metropolis like Punta go to Florida, they’ve seen a 108% enhance in stock yr over yr. So we’ve have doubled the quantity of properties on the market proper now. I do know they’ve nice inhabitants development, however the variety of patrons has not doubled within the final yr. And so principally demand can’t sustain with provide sapping in Cape Coral, in Miami, in Tampa, you’re seeing this a whole lot of locations throughout Florida. In order that’s simply my transient diatribe about Florida. By way of lease nationally it’s up a bit, however we’re seeing the identical development the place a whole lot of main metro areas are seeing the weakest lease. So we see this in locations like Seattle, Austin, Nashville, I do know the place I put money into Denver, we’re seeing adverse lease as nicely as a result of these are the locations the place we’re seeing a whole lot of multifamily provide.
And so if you wish to, you recognize, observe the place lease is perhaps weak for the foreseeable future, take a look at the place there’s a whole lot of multifamily flats coming on-line and also you’ll most likely see a number of the weakest lease markets for development proper now. And ones the place there’s not a whole lot of multifamily provide rents are most likely rising at, a minimum of on the common fee or perhaps even larger. Alright, so these are my regional studies. After which lastly, I simply wished to share with you all just a few observations from my very own investing and perhaps some suggestions about what you are able to do with all this knowledge and knowledge that I’m providing you with to assist your personal portfolio. So before everything, flipping remains to be a good suggestion on this market or in a whole lot of regional markets. I don’t personally actually flip homes, however I’m pals with a whole lot of flippers.
And on condition that we’re nonetheless seeing dwelling value appreciation, that makes it time to be flipping, particularly as a result of cashflow may be more durable to seek out. In order that is only one statement that I’ve seen is that lots of people I do know who do each like put money into each long run, they do midterm, they do flipping, they perform a little little bit of every part. Numerous the individuals I do know are focusing extra on flipping as a result of it’s driving the most effective income and potential proper now. Now, like I mentioned, I don’t flip homes, so I’ll simply let you know what I’ve executed up to now this yr. If it helps you make choices about your personal investing first. I’ve invested in a single syndication up to now and I do know that may be a unpopular factor to be doing proper now as a result of the multifamily and industrial market is a little bit bit loopy.
However I used to be in a position to get right into a syndication that’s heavy, heavy worth add and purchased at an enormous low cost. Mainly the uh, GP, the indicator was in a position to purchase this property for 40% beneath what it offered for in 2018. So not off peak pricing, off 2018 pricing, it’s gonna take two years for this to generate money circulation. So that you do must be affected person. However I like this one as a result of I make investments over the long run and so I’m prepared to attend on money circulation for any such deal. However I’ve additionally bought two duplexes within the Midwest over the primary half of 2024. And I simply wished to name these out as a result of these are on market properties and certainly one of them I truly paid nicely above asking value and so they’re each nonetheless money flowing. I inherited tenants and so they’re each doing truly fairly nicely.
I closed on the opposite one final week, nevertheless it’s gonna a minimum of break even immediately. And I’m doing a little bit little bit of stabilization worth add to it. However as soon as the leases renew, it ought to produce actually good money circulation for me a minimum of six to eight% in a extremely robust market that’s appreciating. And I do know that folks assume that is loopy that it’s not doable, however I do wish to simply spotlight that I’m not an excellent refined fancy investor right here. I’m shopping for stuff on the MLS, I’m shopping for comparatively stabilized properties in good markets and I’m able to make them money circulation. However I feel the important thing right here that I wanna make certain everybody is aware of is that when you’re investing in 2024, it’s a must to be very, very conservative along with your underwriting as a result of regardless of every part I informed you and the stuff we learn about what’s occurred up to now this yr, I feel I do know what may occur by means of the remainder of the yr, however we don’t truly know lease development is unclear.
We don’t know what’s gonna occur there. Appreciation is unclear and may decelerate. And the one factor I do really feel fairly assured about is that bills are going up and it’s not slowing down that a lot. We discuss this so much on the present, however taxes are up, they’re truly up 23% because the starting of the pandemic, which feels like so much. However a current knowledge report I used to be studying means that taxes are literally gonna go up considerably extra within the subsequent few years as a result of despite the fact that taxes went up 23%, property taxes, dwelling costs went up over 40% in that very same interval, which implies that municipalities and states are simply taking a while catching up with that. However they are going to most likely determine methods to stick you with a invoice. Everyone knows insurance coverage goes up. I feel that’s one of many fundamental causes we’re seeing Florida to see some weak spot as we’ve seen insurance coverage premiums double and even triple in some areas, dwelling restore prices are up 40% over pre pandemic ranges.
And once more, I’m not telling you this to scare you out of investing. Once more, I’m investing myself, however I feel it’s actually necessary to be affected person to seek out the form of offers which might be appropriately valued and that sellers have lifelike concepts about what they need to be promoting for proper now. And don’t rely on rank development such as you had been a couple of years in the past. Don’t rely on appreciation such as you had been a couple of years in the past as a result of we simply don’t know if that’s going to occur. If you’ll find a deal that is smart with this conservative underwriting, pull the set off. That’s what I’m doing a minimum of. And I do know my technique and strategy is just not for everybody, however I simply wished to share with you the way I’m navigating this unsure market. Last item I wished to depart you guys with is if you’re all for this sort of knowledge, which in case you have made it by means of 25 or half-hour of me speaking about knowledge, you most likely have an interest on this knowledge.
So if you wish to attempt monitoring these items for your self, I extremely suggest you try this. Some sources that you just may wish to take a look at are Redfin. I actually like their market knowledge. We additionally might [email protected]. All of them have fairly related data and we’re truly engaged on one thing actually cool right here at BiggerPockets the place we’re gonna make investor targeted market knowledge for those that’s gonna be launching fairly quickly. So maintain an eye fixed out for that. However within the meantime, take a look at a few of these large public knowledge units and I’d suggest observe 4 issues such as you don’t want to trace each single factor that I simply mentioned. Simply observe these 4 issues. Take a look at stock, take a look at new listings, gear over your value development and month over month value development and simply get some follow at this. If you happen to take a look at these items, you recognize, as soon as a month is loads, simply take actually quarter-hour and take a look at this as soon as a month you’re gonna get a greater sense of how all this stuff work collectively to shift market dynamics.
You’ll see that when stock goes up, that normally weakens month over month value development when new listings go down, that normally strengthens value development. And also you’ll get a greater sense of how all of this knowledge can and may inform your investing choices. Similar to with analyzing offers, getting follow in is the important thing to getting good at it. It’s the identical factor with market evaluation. Simply get some follow in and I promise you, you may get good at this too. Alright, that’s the finish of my knowledge market replace for you right this moment. Thanks all a lot for listening. If you happen to, any of you’ve gotten questions on this knowledge, methods to observe it your self or didn’t perceive one thing I mentioned, discover me. I’m all the time on BiggerPockets. You possibly can ship me a message there or publish a query within the boards. If not, I’ll see you very quickly for one more episode of the BiggerPockets Actual Property Podcast. And ensure to maintain an eye fixed out for these prediction episodes that we’re gonna be airing within the subsequent couple of weeks to present you sense of what me and a number of the different BiggerPockets personalities expect for the second half of the yr. See you quickly.